Broken Supply Chains by Steve Saretsky

Steve Satetsky Group - January 17, 2021     As of this week, unvaccinated US truckers will not be able to cross the Canadian border. This decision by the Trudeau government is going to have significant economic impacts. COVID politics aside, let's discuss the economic ramifications moving forward and how this could ultimately come full circle for the housing market.   More than 70% of cross-border trade moves by truck. Canada imports $21B worth of food from the US each year. Suffice to say, [...]

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Preparing For Higher Rates

Invis - December 8, 2021 Given inflationary pressures, the Bank of Canada indicated in their last rate announcement that rate hikes could take place earlier than previously indicated, in mid-2022, which means variable rates that rise and fall in tandem with the key rate will start climbing. Views among economists vary as to how many hikes we'll see in 2022 and 2023 because no one really knows whether inflation is truly transitory given supply chain issues, or even if it [...]

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Sales have calmed from earlier in 2021 but tight supply conditions are expected to continue to drive prices higher

[Crea - September 15, 2021] Ottawa, ON September 15, 2021 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations. Over the past several years, record levels of international immigration (not including 2020), low interest rates, and an increasingly middle-aged Millennial cohort have come together to fuel very strong household formation and housing demand in Canada. Recall that prior to COVID-19, the [...]

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House prices in Vancouver, Victoria, Nanaimo expected to jump this fall

[News 1130 - October 6, 2021] NANAIMO (NEWS 1130) — While temperatures are expected to cool in the coming months, home prices in B.C. will not, according to the new Fall Housing Market outlook report by RE/MAX. RE/MAX projects housing prices will rise by two to five per cent through the end of 2021 in Vancouver. However, it is not the most expensive area. The largest jump is expected to be for homes sold in two cities on Vancouver Island: Nanaimo (nine [...]

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Interest Outlook: Rate Hike Coming in Q4 2022

[The Motley Fool - October 6, 2021] The forecasts for the interest rate hike are varied, but the consensus is Q4 2022. Investors looking for buying opportunities before it happens should consider National Bank of Canada stock or Real Matters stock for income or growth. Most economists and market analysts predict that the Bank of Canada will increase its interest rate by Q4 2022. Well Fargo’s outlook is more hawkish than the consensus forecast. The American bank says the initial rate [...]

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Bank of Canada researchers argue in favour of inflation overshoots following recessions

[Globe and Mail - July 28, 2021] Central bankers should let inflation run temporarily above target when the economy is coming out of a severe recession, according to new Bank of Canada research that provides a window into how the central bank is thinking about inflation as the pandemic wanes. The paper, published last week by three senior bank economists, argues that monetary policy should allow inflation to rise above the bank’s 2-per-cent target following major recessions where interest rates hit [...]

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A new wave of buyers expected to hit B.C. real estate market

[The Globe and Mail - July 2, 2021] Throughout the pandemic, home sales soared, and in some markets, set record prices. Industry insiders say that postpandemic, the B.C. housing market is expected to boom again – driven by Canadians returning home and the federal government’s plan to bring in more than 1.2 million immigrants by 2023. The wave is already happening according to Jacky Chan, president of BakerWest Real Estate Inc., who works closely with developers. BakerWest is the new Vancouver [...]

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Bank of Canada keeps benchmark rate at record low but economic outlook brightens

Bank forecasting a 6.5% increase in GDP growth in 2021, up from 4% [CBC - April 21, 2021] The Bank of Canada opted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at a record-low 0.25 per cent Wednesday, saying the pandemic recovery "continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support." At the same time, it significantly increased its growth estimates, forecasting a 6.5 per cent increase this year, up from an earlier prediction of four per cent. The bank said in a statement that it intends to [...]

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Today’s hot Vancouver housing market may be just a prelude

[Globe and Mail - March 19, 2021] One year after the pandemic began, and despite initial worries, it turned out to be one of the real-estate industry’s best years. “There are bidding wars on many homes throughout the Lower Mainland, on the Island, and even in the Kootenays,” says Rudy Nielsen, an industry veteran who owns Landcor Data Corporation, Niho Land & Cattle Company and LandQuest Realty Corp. “Realtors, mortgage brokers, mortgage lenders, have never been busier and are making a [...]

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B.C. economy set to grow in 2021, 2022, forecast suggests

[News 1130 - February 25, 2021] VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – B.C.’s economy is looking up — at least for now — according to a new forecast. Central 1 suggests the provincial economy is going to grow by 4.2 per cent this year and by 4.5 per cent in 2022. Exports and the demand for housing are expected to be the main drivers as economies around the world bounce back from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine rollout and development are also [...]

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